Archive for October, 2009

In 2009, about 40% of income taxes go toward debt interest

Monday, October 12th, 2009

Except for a few short years in the 1990s, our national government has spent more every year than it has taken in in taxes.   Every year.  Over and over.   This is not temporary deficit spending based on sound policy objectives to get over short-term recessions in the economy.   Is is an endemic, destructive way of governing by those who have the responsibility to do better.

Lawrence Kadish correctly points out in an op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal that, in 2009, about 40% of income taxes will go towards interest payments alone:

As of Sept. 30, 2009, the national debt was almost $12 trillion and interest on that debt was $383 billion for the year, according to the Treasury Department’s Bureau of the Public Debt. The Congressional Budget Office on Oct. 7 estimated the 2009 budget deficit to be almost $1.4 trillion (about 10% of GDP). In August, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) estimated total government revenues at about $2 trillion. The revenue estimate included $904 billion from individual income taxes. This means the cost of interest on the debt represented more than 40 cents of every dollar that came in from individual income taxes.

We must reverse course before, as Kadish puts it, the economy plunges into “a level of chaos that would make the  Lehman bankruptcy look like a non-event.”

Seattle actor dies while hiking solo

Sunday, October 11th, 2009

I was saddened to read yesterday of the death of local actor T.J. Langely. He died while hiking solo in the Glacier Peak backcountry. I interviewed T.J. 10 years ago for my magazine, BEARS and Other Top Predators, after he had been severely injured by a grizzly bear in Yellowstone National Park. That was also while he was hiking solo. I identify with T.J.’s compulsion to go alone to such places. I’ve actually hiked solo myself in the area where he died.

For many of us, wilderness calls to mind more primal times when life choices and opportunities were bounded more by nature, less by the rules and requirements of social institutions. Wilderness visits help recharge our batteries for dealing with the latter. I am not in favor of dismantling the social institutions that make life so much easier now than in primitive times. But I would like to see some of our institutions dialed back a notch, to see modern living a degree or two closer to the hard freedom that our progenitors enjoyed.

My only interaction with T.J. was the one time in the hospital after his quintessential primitive encounter. Judging by his reaction to that difficulty, I would guess that he had many friends, and that he will be sorely missed.

I’ve posted more thoughts on T.J. Langely and information about the area where he died at my backcountry blog FindingWilderness.com.

Nobel Peace Surprise

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Yesterday’s piece in The Economist looking at the odds of various candidates to win the Nobel Peace Prize is more interesting after today’s announcement.

How to get the CBO to bless your new entitlement as "deficit neutral"..

Friday, October 9th, 2009
  1. Make people buy the benefit themselves, and tax them if they don’t
  2. Tax the provider (drug and instrument manufacturers) who will pass the costs on to the consumer
  3. Include statutory requirements to cut back subsidies to the program if it increases the deficit (knowing that subsequent legislative sessions will remove the requirement once the entitlement is firmly established)
  4. Shift costs to the states
  5. Commit to future reductions in Medicaire spending growth that aren’t realistic and won’t be in fact  implemented.

As this morning’s opinion in the Wall Street Journal explains, the  Senate Finance health care proposal uses all of these methods, and more.  It’s classic legislative obfuscation of costs that makes people think they are getting something for free, when in fact they are paying for it indirectly.  It’s a sham.  Americans will eventually figure it out.  The crucial question is when.

Arguing with idiots

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

We all feel like that sometime, whichever side of the political spectrum we identify with.  This hilarious clip from The Family Guy speaks for itself.

The Nixon Health Plan

Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

Every table in the Sheraton Hotel ballroom in downtown Seattle was filled last night for the Washington Policy Center’s Annual Dinner. The keynote speaker was Ben Stein, author, lawyer, economist, actor, and a speechwriter for the Nixon administration. He reminded us that Nixon proposed a health care plan during his tenure. Stein noted that Nixon’s plan was based on private rather government-sponsored insurance, and that it would have provided subsidies to low income individuals and small businesses. In many ways it was similar to the current proposals, although it contained no individual mandate. We have learned a lot since Nixon proposed his plan, and I think it would be subject to many of the same defects of the current proposals, the two most significant being that the moral hazard problem is not sufficiently addressed and the government defined benefit would drive the system towards a high degree of regulation. You can read about Nixon’s plan in his own words here.

Washington’s Policy Center’s website is a great resources. You can find their publications on health care policy here.

Hassling Whole Foods

Monday, October 5th, 2009

I received a postcard a few days ago that screamed “Why is Whole Foods CEO fighting progressive health care reform?” It was from an organization called Health Care for America Now and it warned me that Whole Foods is looking to locate in my neighborhood soon. I had the urge to look over my shoulder for lurking real estate executives in trench coats, scoping out sites for the new store.

The reference was to CEO John Mackey’s Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal where he dared to suggest that, even though “we clearly need health reform,” we should be moving “toward less government control and more individual empowerment.”

The postcard wailed, “[Mackey] went so far as to say that health care is not a right in America.” Silly Mr. Mackey. He must have mistook the very debate he was participating in as evidence that there is no right to health care in America (other than the right to be treated in emergency rooms regardless of ability to pay, which every person in American has by statute).

Health Care for America Now’s website urges people to “get angry,” and lists the lies (yes lies!) that are being told about proposed health care reforms. To my horror I realized I am one of the lying liars who tell them since I believe there is a pretty good argument for several of the propositions on their lie list. And forgive my mendacity for not agreeing that “health care reform will be fully paid for,” that “a majority of reform will be paid for by finding savings and cutting waste within the current system,” or that “nothing in any health reform bill being proposed . . . would ration care,” all propositions that are “The Truth” according to Health Care for America Now’s web site.

Is anyone else sick of this manner of debate? There are gross examples of this same poor behavior on the right. Let’s not waste more valuable debating capital arguing about who started it. I don’t know a conservative person (or anyone for that matter) who doesn’t believe that the government has a role in ensuring that everyone has health care, including assisting those with low incomes and catastrophic/chronic diseases. Everyone recognizes that rising prices must be checked. No one favors continuing the status quo. The debate is about how we get there, and it should be an honest one about the trade-offs.

Don’t we all aspire to live in a world where objectively presented facts and thoughtful argument carry the day? One ought to be able to put forward a reasoned argument in good faith without being subject to thinly-veiled boycott campaigns. What do you say we turn our ears from the shrill voices, hold up and engage the reasoned ones.

See John Mackey’s more complete statement of his proposal on his blog here, and his weekend interview with the Wall Street Journal here.

My wife's islet cell transplant

Sunday, October 4th, 2009
Jennifer on Royal Arches Route in Yosemite

Jennifer on Royal Arches Route in Yosemite

My wife would not be alive today but for the tremendous innovation and resources available in our health care system. She is one of the few insulin-dependent (Type I) diabetics in the world who have actually had their condition cured in a sense, though more accurately described as “corrected,” since she must continue to take anti-rejection drugs for the rest of her life.  This is her story in her own words:

I was diagnosed with diabetes in 1977 and suffered severe complications including diabetic retinopathy (which can lead to blindness), loss of kidney function, nerve damage, and most debilitating: episodes of low blood sugar.  By 2000 my body began losing the ability to recognize the signs of low blood sugar/hypoglycemia and coincidentally that same year there was a breakthrough on a new treatment for diabetes: islet cell transplantation.  (Islet cells make up 2% of the pancreas and their purpose is to produce insulin and trigger the release of glucagon.)

Clinical trials for islet cell transplantation began in 9 centers around the world in 2001.  Two years later, through the advocacy of my incredible endocrinologist Dr. Frances Broyles, I was accepted into a research protocol testing a new immunosuppression drug combination at The Diabetes Institute in Minneapolis .  In 2005 I was privileged to receive islet cells transplanted from the pancreases of two deceased organ donors. The islets now produce insulin and regulate my blood sugar on their own so I no longer need to take insulin shots or use an insulin pump, and best of all do not experience debilitating hypoglycemic episodes.

Jennifer and I recently completed a long rock climb in Yosemite National Park that would have been too risky for her before her transplant.  Check out our trip report and route description of the Royal Arches route here.

Tips for Winter Bike Commuting

Sunday, October 4th, 2009

I have commuted by bicycle my whole career.  That’s about 20 years in such varied places as New York City, Washington D.C., Berkeley California, Kumamoto Japan, Seattle, and Blackfoot, a small town in Idaho.

For long-time bike commuters it has been gratifying to see the surge in our numbers as gas prices skyrocketed. Here’s hoping these new riders don’t lose their gumption now that the days are getting shorter and the weather is getting cooler. To those riders, and anyone who is open to the idea of bike commuting, here’s the secret — commuting through the winter here is not so bad, in fact, it’s quite pleasant and invigorating most days. Seattle is famous for its rain but did you know we get about the same annual precipitation as Washington, D.C. and Tulsa, Oklahoma? It’s just that we have significantly more “rain days”.  The truth is the light rain that prevails here most of the time makes for pleasantly cool riding. Temperatures are moderate, and we experience little wind by most standards.

In addition to having a base level of fitness, having a predictable commuting schedule, and saving on parking, gas and car expenses, here are a few things bike commuters enjoy:

  • Smiling pleasantly while riding past lines of slowly moving cars.
  • Zipping across town in the middle of the day without worrying about traffic or parking.
  • Being smug to socially conscious types in your office. (For example, in my law firm, most of the bike commuters are the Gordon Gekko business types rather than the crusading litigators.)
  • Telling people “No, I don’t have to ride my bike home, I get to.”

Here are a few things I’ve learned over many winters that help make winter bike commuting go a little smoother:

  • Dealing with traffic. Some traffic can’t be avoided, but most commute routes can take advantage of long sections of bike trails and bicycle lanes that are away from traffic. King County, Seattle, and Redmond all publish handy maps that show all of the bicycle routes, bicycle lanes, and the more bike-friendly roads. The Bicycle Alliance of Washington has a bicycling buddy program. They will hook you up with an experienced rider in your area to be your temporary riding companion to assist with route finding and give general moral support.
  • Consider a hybrid commute. If your commuting distance is too far or otherwise just doesn’t work as a straightforward bike ride, consider linking your bike with another form of transportation. For example, try hauling your bike on your car to a non-congested and free parking area then bike the last few miles. Other options involve taking your bike one way on the bus, train, or ferry and riding back home on the same day, or alternate days. All of the above methods also work well for runners, skate boarders, roller bladers and walkers.
  • What type of bike. Any bike will do, but for year round riding, fenders are mandatory to keep you and your bike clean. Fenders are widely available and can be fitted to almost any bike these days. Mountain bikes make great commuting bikes, but take the knobbies off and put on 1.5 or 1.25 inch-wide smooth road tires (but not too smooth  (see below about flats). Smooth tires will increase the rolling efficiency of your bike by one or two gears. Road bikes are fastest, but the trade-off is that thinner tires get more flats. If you don’t have a bike, consider buying one that has been designed from the ground up for commuting. The best in this category have the following features
  • upright geometry (more like a cruiser, less like a racing bike or aggressive mountain bike)
  • medium width tires (1.25 inches) with relatively smooth tread
  • fenders
  • gear racks
  • internal hub gear system
  • drum brakes (internal)
  • dynamo front hub (powers lights without batteries)
  • front and rear lights (powered by the dynamo)
  • bell

One bike built from the ground up with all of these features is the Novara Fusion, sold by REI.

  • Speaking of flats. The occasional thrown staple or bent nail can’t be avoided. But most flats are caused by broken glass or by hitting the sharp edge of a pothole or iron rail on underinflated tires (creates “snake bite” punctures). Keep your tires inflated to the maximum recommended pressure and start paying attention to where the worst potholes are on your route — or don’t and learn where they are one flat at a time.
  • Rain causes flats. Glass is another problem altogether and caused me all sorts of grief until I learned how to deal with it. Small pieces of broken glass cause flats by sticking to the surface of the tire and gradually working their way through the tread to the tube. Glass sticks to moist tires much more readily than to dry tires. That’s why on the first rainy day after a dry spell you may see more cyclists than usual on the side of the road, fixing flats. Check your tires regularly for tell-tale nicks in the tread that indicate a piece of glass may be embedded. Squeeze the deflated tire right at the nick to expose any glass down inside. You may need a pointed tool to remove it. Personally, I have found that tire liners and stop-leak liquids aren’t worth the effort or the mess. However, after many years, I have finally figured out that glass doesn’t stick as readily to the types of tires that have micro beads on the running surface of the tread. Between that and checking my tires regularly, especially when the roads are moist, I rarely get flats from glass shards these days.
  • Riding attire. I’ve never spent much on biking clothes, except for $200 I wasted on a waterproof breathable biking jacket when I first came to Seattle. Personally I have no use for expensive waterproof breathables for bike commuting. They just don’t breathe well enough to vent adequately when exercising and they quickly become uncomfortable. Instead, I wear synthetic shirts under a simple nylon windbreaker. Even when it is actually raining (which isn’t that often) my heat has built up by the time the water has soaked through such that my temperature is fairly well maintained throughout the ride. This method might not be the best if your ride takes longer than 45 minutes or so, if you ride quite casually, or if there is no convenient place to hang wet clothes to dry when you get to work. For the legs I get by with heavy bicycling tights or simple polyester jogging pants, rainy days or dry. A few bikers where neoprene or other types of booties on the feet. Most don’t bother. But you should pick shoes made of non-absorbent material without a lot of padding. I relax my no Gore-Tex rule for the hands. I use thinly insulated Gore-Tex-lined gloves on raining days. A visor on your helmet is unexpectedly useful for keeping the rain out of your eyes and off your glasses.
  • Get a thermometer. As winter progresses you will want to start putting on more layers to match the temperature, but it’s a hassle if you misjudge. Get a large outdoor thermometer and check it every morning before you leave. You will soon learn exactly what to wear to be comfortable at a given temperature.
  • Friction is mandatory. As the weather gets colder, the thermometer is crucial to avoid riding on mornings when the temperature has dropped below freezing overnight. Fortunately, this happens on average only about five nights per winter. (Last year was unusually cold; we had about 10 nights below freezing.) Because we have very little wind here, it can actually be quite comfortable riding in 33 or 34 degree weather. But don’t be tempted to ride when the thermometer goes to 32. It isn’t worth it. If you ignore this advice and end up banging your hip in a crash, look on the bright side. There is a very good chance that you will even things out by banging up the other hip before you get to work. I speak from experience.
  • Carrying your gear. Your backpack, messenger bag, or panniers should be made of non-absorbent, not just waterproof material. The bags designed for the purpose made out of PVC work perfectly. They are also expensive. For the last four years I have used a vinyl backpack I bought for three dollars. Besides being waterproof, it is also an eye-catcher, albeit not necessarily in a pleasing way. If you see a guy riding downtown with a florescent blue backpack that looks like he borrowed it from a Japanese school girl, that’s me.
  • Cargo bikes. If you need to carry lots of gear or even kids on your commute, check out Xtracycle, a company that makes a bicycle extension that allows you to haul up to 200 pounds of oddly shaped cargo or people. There are a number of these handy bikes around town.
  • Become a night rider. If you are committed to bike commuting year around you will need to get comfortable riding at night. Bike lights continue to get brighter, cheaper, and the batteries last longer. There’s no excuse these days not to be lit up like a candle in all directions. You should also have redundant lights, both front and back, to avoid issues if one stops working for any reason, and to use more lights when it is raining. Wet roads reduce visibility, wet windshields even more. When it’s raining I turn on more lights and put them on more obnoxious flash settings. Many riders attach a red light on their helmet facing backwards. I have a little headlight taped to my helmet that I turn on when it’s raining and I use it to shine in the face of drivers whose attention I need. I use plastic cable ties to mount tail lights on my front fork so that I have good lighting on the side. In 20 years of riding I have had one close call with cars, not here in Seattle but on a rural highway in Idaho. It was at dusk and though I wasn’t the one violating the law, I could have avoided the whole thing by having decent lighting on my bike (I only had a dim headlight.) My theory (no proof) is that a well-lit, reflected up bicyclist grabs the attention of motorists at least as well as a biker in daylight.
  • Maintaining your bike. The worst part about rainy weather is not that your clothes get wet; it’s that you have to spend more time maintaining your bike. As I said earlier, fenders are mandatory and will help keep the bike clean. With older bikes it requires some care to keep water out of the wheel hubs. With modern sealed hubs, this is no longer an issue. Nowadays the most critical parts affected by wet weather are the chain and the cables for the brakes and gears. Make sure the cables have been appropriately lubricated when they were installed, and check for gaps or cracks in the covers that might let water in. Keep your chain lubricated. I like a wax-based lubricant called White Lightening which stays on well and doesn’t cause nearly as much mess. Carry an absorbent cloth with you in your pack and on rainy days wipe the water off of the chain as soon as you get to work. If you wait until you go home you’ll have rust, even if your chain is well lubricated. Consider shelling out extra cash for a stainless steel chain.
  • Internal hubs. If you are in the market for a new bike consider an internal hub. Internal hub bikes have made a comeback in the last few years and the choice has expanded beyond the traditional 3-gear variety to 5, 8 and even 20-gear versions. These gear systems are a little heavier and more expensive to repair, but the advantage is that they are completely internal, out of the weather, and they also allow the chain to be completely covered by a guard, keeping it out of the weather too. The Novara Fusion, mentioned earlier, has an internal hub.
  • Parking your bike. Some companies are okay with employees carrying their bikes in the elevator to their office. I don’t bother, because the underground garages in most office buildings have racks to store your bike out of the weather and in the relative safety of the garage. These garages apparently do this as a public service, because I’m not aware of any incentive for them to do it, and it seems against their economic interest. So let me take the opportunity to thank the managers at the IDX Tower and the Columbia Tower for making a place for bikes in their garages.

Representative Ericksen's Health Care Town Hall Meeting

Saturday, October 3rd, 2009

I braved the rain last Tuesday evening (Sept. 29th) to attend the health care town hall in Bellevue hosted by State Representative Doug Ericksen. There were about 35 people in the audience. Ericksen talked freely and with specificity about how the system works, current laws that affect it, and legislation that has been proposed to change it, some of it by him. He believes that government has a role in subsidizing low income individuals, assisting those with chronic and catastrophic conditions, ensuring greater transparency, guaranteeing portability and promoting access. Everyone in the audience seemed to agree with him.

Some solutions he supports on the federal level are: federal tax credit to individuals to purchase health insurance, eliminate the employer tax deduction, tort reform, increase health savings accounts, and allow purchase of health insurance across state lines. Some solutions he supports on the state level are: allow purchase of plans across state lines, change state mandates to allow a core (more limited) benefit plan, transform Washington’s Basic Health Plan (an insurance program for low-income people not eligible for Medicaid) into a premium-subsidy program for ages 35 to 64, repeal two percent tax on insurance premium for HSAs, give small employers and self-employed individuals a tax credit for providing insurance. These proposals, and a few others, are spelled out in more detail on his slide deck presentation, available here.

Interestingly, all of the state proposals mentioned were in bills introduced in the last legislative session that never made it out of committee. Most never received a hearing. I would like to see more public debate between those state legislators that supported the bills and those that didn’t. And I would like to chance to hear more of Ericksen’s ideas and proposals. During the meeting, there were references to the need to control costs, but little discussion about the moral hazard problem that is a major factor in creating it. A few quick words with him after the meeting revealed that he has also thought about that issue, but none of his proposed solutions take a direct aim at it.

Erickson has led town hall meetings in Bellingham, Richland and Yakima, and has scheduled future events in Burlington (Oct. 5) and Spokane (Oct. 7 and 17).